Garnaut projections show mitigation bearable

The costs of reducing greenhouse gas emissions are less daunting when the alternatives are considered, according to the Garnaut Climate Change Review.

Despite widespread concerns that measures to mitigate Australia's environmental impact would wreck the economy, the report estimates that the proposed measures will only slow the gross national product (GNP) by about 0.1% over the remainder of the century.

That's after an initial setback of about 0.8% when an emissions trading scheme is introduced.

Interestingly, these figures are gained by comparing the measures against an economy based on today's growth, with no adverse effects from unchecked global warming — no increase in extreme weather, no rising sea levels, nor any of the social or environmental issues stemming from them.

The appropriate comparison is an alternative 'do-nothing' projection, where those costs are taken into account.

Unmitigated climate change would mean GNP at the end of the century would be about 10% less than it would be with no global warming. And, despite the costs of mitigation, GNP growth would be accelerating away from potential growth under the do-nothing scenario by around 2060, according to the review.