Why quantum is our next big bet after AI

Business leaders are rightly protective of profits today, backing the technologies that dominate headlines and boardroom discussions, like AI.

Yet, ironically, the pace of exponential technologies like AI is what will put today's profits under pressure tomorrow. This is because every exponential technology alters our business landscape forever, opening the door to new exponential technologies, like quantum technologies.

Quantum technologies will come through the door AI opened, and potentially much faster than many expect. Where AI accelerates data-driven decision-making, quantum technology opens capabilities well beyond conventional technology. Quantum sensors will hand AI systems measurements that conventional instruments struggle to see. AI can then turn those signals into a decision a driller, a grid operator, or a clinician can act on.

It’s a shift that is already underway yet still widely misunderstood. Here is why.

Quantum’s value will come in waves

The most common mistake we see from investors and business leaders is to assume that ‘quantum’ means ‘quantum computing’, and that its arrival will occur in one dramatic shift. But computing is just one of three technology domains, alongside quantum sensing and quantum communications, each developing on a different timeline. Understanding that sequence is critical for anyone deciding where and when to allocate capital.

Contrary to popular belief, some of quantum’s clearest near-term commercial value is emerging in sensing — not computing — in the form of improved measurement in industries where expensive decisions are still made with incomplete information, for example mining, navigation, diagnostics and about a hundred others.

Quantum communications are another emerging wave, and quantum itself is already forcing action in cybersecurity. The Australian Signals Directorate recommends Australian organisations complete their transition from vulnerable asymmetric cryptography to post-quantum cryptography by the end of 2030.

So anyone waiting for the development of a large-scale quantum computer to “bet on quantum” risks missing the returns available in the earlier waves.

Critically, those returns won’t necessarily sit only with quantum companies, because just as some of AI’s biggest winners will be the businesses that use it to transform their economics, some of quantum's biggest winners could be its early adopters.

This could look like the miners who target their drilling more precisely, the logistics companies that navigate more accurately, or the healthcare companies that gain access to better diagnostic tools.

Need some proof? Mining already has case studies in spades (pun intended).

Case in point: Australia’s most storied industry

Australia has always had the rocks. Mining built our modern economy and shaped how we see ourselves as a country. Yet it’s the industry’s maturity where the opportunity now sits.

Over 80% of our mineral production still comes from mines discovered before 1980, back when exploration was largely about finding resources closer to the surface.

What remains to be discovered is increasingly hidden because about 70% of the continent lies under soils, sands and sediments. These conceal what the Australian Academy of Science calls a "trillion-dollar prize" underneath the surface.

So mining's oldest questions now have to be answered through metres of cover: where to drill, how deep, and how to find critical minerals with fewer expensive false starts. Get the target wrong and you have paid for an expensive drill hole that tells you very little. Get it right more often, and the economics of exploration change.

That is the whole case for quantum sensing.

Quantum sensors can detect extremely small changes in magnetic, gravitational and electromagnetic fields, giving companies a better read on what sits underground before they commit capital.

The result will be better targets, fewer unnecessary drill holes and a greater chance of finding valuable deposits beneath deep cover. Across a major exploration program, even modest improvements in targeting can translate into substantial savings.

A great example is CSIRO’s LANDTEM sensing technology, which has helped discover over $10 billion in ore deposits globally. Clients have reported exploration cost reductions of up to 30%, and the technology has been used by companies including Glencore, Legend Mining, Mincor Resources, Western Areas, and Aeris Resources.

BHP Ventures-backed Atomionics estimates its cold-atom sensors could save up to 80% of exploration drilling costs, explaining why ASX-listed Kincora Copper has signed it to run a quantum gravity survey at its Cowal East project.

In February, the federal government put $2.4 million into TeraGlo for a real-time mine-site sensor measuring recoverable rare earths in clay.

This was followed by Sydney spinout Deteqt closing a $5 million seed round in April for its work developing chip-scale quantum sensors that put a diamond magnetometer onto a silicon chip using standard semiconductor manufacturing. Fleet Space is building a quantum innovation pipeline around its ExoSphere platform, working with companies including Nomad Atomics to bring quantum gravity measurements into AI-powered mineral exploration.

This steadily-growing list of quantum applications in mining is just barely touching the surface on how the tech will reshape the industry most ingrained in our national identity, before we even look towards financial services, energy, healthcare, defence and others.

We already have world-class research, credible founders, and use cases at real scale. Generative AI also took barely three years to move from curiosity to boardroom necessity.

Quantum will develop differently, but the lesson for business leaders is the same: waiting until a technology is ubiquitous means waiting until much of the opportunity has already been captured.

The task now is to keep building unified national quantum capability and to drive the markets already using quantum, without holding out for a breakthrough in quantum computing. This means backing both the companies building quantum technology and the industries where adoption could fundamentally change the economics, by connecting our research with the industry, investors and customers who can turn that capability into markets.

The quantum opportunity will arrive in stages, alongside the technologies we already use. Much of it is still under cover today, in the same way our next big deposits are. But this is exactly where the opportunities are. The companies that pick up the instrument first will be the ones who know where to dig. *Petra Andrén is CEO of Quantum Australia. Primarily funded by the Australian Government, with additional support from state governments, industry and universities, Quantum Australia helps drive the growth of Australia’s quantum ecosystem by delivering programs that support the National Quantum Strategy.

Top image credit: iStock.com/Alones Creative