Oil's OK - for now

The world has enough energy until 2030 at least on current trends and despite an expected surge in demand, on condition that there is sufficient investment in the supply chain, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said.

Two thirds of a more than 50% rise in energy demand in the next 25 years would come from developing countries, the IEA predicted in its World Energy Outlook report for 2005.

Demand is foreseen coming to 16.3 billion tonnes of oil equivalent by 2030, an estimated 5.5 billion more tonnes than is consumed at present.

"The world's energy resources are adequate to meet the projected growth in energy demand," the IEA said, adding that global oil reserves today "exceed the cumulative projected production between now and 2030."

The agency also stressed that oil-consuming nations must respond to an "urgent need" to upgrade their distillation and refining capacities. At present, it said, "spare capacity has been rapidly diminishing and flexibility has fallen even faster." The IEA said the crude oil price for its member countries, after hitting an average of $65 in September, should fall back to $35 a barrel in 2010 in response to new production capacities before edging back up to $39 in 2030.