Latest AEMO report on future grid stability released

AEMO’s 2026 Electricity Statement of Opportunities (ESOO) report, published today, shows there is a clear pathway to maintain reliable electricity supply across the National Electricity Market (NEM) over the coming decade.

Each year, the Australian Energy Market Operator assesses future electricity supply and demand against reliability standards to determine whether enough resources are expected to be available to maintain reliable electricity supply as demand grows and the power system evolves. The ESOO provides early signals to support investment, planning and policy decisions.

AEMO Chief Executive Officer Daniel Westerman said the report shows the reliability outlook has improved, while reinforcing the need for continued investment as generation retires and electricity demand grows.

“The reliability outlook has improved, supported by record levels of new generation and storage, and a strong pipeline of projects expected over the next decade,” he said. “As electricity demand continues to grow and aging generation retires, continued investment in generation, storage, transmission and consumer energy resources will be needed to maintain reliability.”

Relative to last year’s report, the reliability outlook has improved, with no forecast reliability gaps identified before 2030. This improvement has been supported by a record 9.1 GW of new generation and storage capacity connected in 2025–26 and a 40 GW pipeline of committed and anticipated projects expected to be delivered by the early 2030s.

Over the next decade, around 15 GW of coal and gas generation is scheduled to retire, while electricity consumption is forecast to increase by more than 40% as homes, businesses and industry electrify and data centre demand grows.

“The report finds a significant amount of new capacity is expected to be delivered between now and the early 2030s, helping to replace retiring generation and support growing electricity demand,” Westerman said. “Beyond 2030, the next wave of investment will be critical to maintaining reliability.”

The 2026 ESOO also includes updated forecasts of data centre electricity demand and enhancements to AEMO’s forecasting methodology to better reflect how this rapidly growing sector develops and operates in practice. Data centre electricity consumption in the NEM is forecast to increase from approximately 5 TWh in 2025–26 to 34 TWh by 2035–36, increasing from around 3% to approximately 13% of electricity supplied through the grid.

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